Joint flight training with the Russian Federation will take place in Belarus
Could this be an important marker of preparations for the invasion?
The presence on the territory of Belarus of the necessary number of planes and helicopters to ensure the invasion is one of the markers that may indicate the readiness of the Rashists for a new large-scale attack
The Ministry of Defense of Belarus officially announced that it is planned to conduct a joint flight and tactical exercise together with the Russian armed forces. The terms of the training, the number of forces, the location – are not specified. Even the most amorphous wording ‘military formation ‘VKS’ of the Russian Federation is used, under which everything from an aviation unit consisting of two machines to an aviation division can be hidden.
But this can be an important marker of the future plans of the Kremlin from the point of view of a possible resumption of hostilities from the territory of Belarus. The fact is that on December 15, during the briefing of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the aviation component was named as one of the markers of preparation for the invasion from the territory of Belarus. At that time, it was absent, and in February of last year it was about the DRLV A-50U aircraft, 32 attack aircraft, 15 fighters and 77 helicopters.
At the same time, overturning such a large number of aircraft requires not only the presence of sides, but also the ability to receive a significant number of vehicles. Thus, the deployment of an aviation group requires significant preparation of the ground infrastructure, which will not go unnoticed anyway. And a completely logical means of ‘disguise’ is to conduct ‘training’.
Also, the message from the Ministry of Defense of Belarus indicates progress in the deployment of the so-called joint ‘regional grouping of troops’. In addition, the receipt of new military equipment from the Russian Federation was demonstrated – a fairly significant number of BTR-82A and BTR-80K. Considering the fact that the Rashists also have their own lack of armored vehicles, for which weapons that should be exported are withdrawn, this also looks quite unusual.
At the same time, we should not forget that the Belarusian direction is quite convenient for the Kremlin in order to conduct deceptive demonstration activities with the aim of distracting the forces of the Armed Forces. In particular, according to the assessment of the German Ministry of Defense, there are two scenarios, according to the first – the Russian Federation will try to make a maximum similar demonstration of the threat of a strike, which will force additional forces to be transferred to the border with Belarus, by weakening other areas of the front. According to the second, Moscow will try to carry out a large-scale offensive, although this should require a general mobilization in the Russian Federation and a much longer period for preparation. But we note that Berlin’s view of the planning of the Russian General Staff may be far from reality, because it does not take into account the fact that decisions in the Kremlin are made for political, not military reasons.
