ATACMS missiles can significantly change the situation at the front – ISW
The long-range ATACMS missiles pose a threat to Russian aviation and ammunition depots in the rear.
This was written by analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Analysts note that Ukraine’s strikes on airfields in the occupied territories (such as the attacks on aviation in Berdiansk and Luhansk) will force the Russian command to disperse its air assets and divert some aircraft to airfields farther from the front line.
For example, the use of aviation from the airfield in Berdiansk allowed the Russians to deter the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Zaporizhzhia region.
Russian military bloggers have already drawn parallels with the delivery of HIMARS, which helped destroy the concentration of enemy aircraft in Chornobaivka. Back then, Russians had to adapt to the new conditions, and now they are facing a similar situation.
“The likely dispersal of Russian aviation to the airfields of the occupied territory of Ukraine and the redeployment of aircraft further from the front line is likely to disrupt Russian aviation support for defense efforts and local offensive operations,” ISW noted.
This is likely to be especially important for Russian helicopters, which operated in relatively small sections of the front line for a long period of time to deter advancing mechanized Ukrainian forces at the beginning of the counteroffensive in June and July 2023, analysts said.
The same threats arise for Russian warehouses, which were hidden further to the rear and dispersed after the HIMARS strikes.
“ATACMS is likely to present a similar challenge to Russian forces, and Russian forces can either focus on fortifying existing depots or create an even more dispersed and therefore overly expanded ammunition logistics system,” ISW writes.
