China is not interested in Russia losing obviously
Russia is China’s largest ally and vassal. China obviously knew about the plans to attack Ukraine.
The main question should not be, “Will China support Russia?” The question should be, “How or to what extent will China support Russia?” This also applies to weapons. And money. And simply bypassing sanctions.
China is now, like the United States, assessing the boundary of “red lines” that are either too risky to cross or still acceptable within the framework of a general confrontation. And so, it also makes decisions based on the risk of controlled escalation.
And now for more details. Russia is China’s largest ally and vassal. China obviously knew about the plans to attack Ukraine. All this talk about Xi Jinping not knowing is nonsense. He knew, of course. But I’m sure Putin promised Xi something like, “I’ll solve everything in two or three weeks.” And for the last year, China has hardly been happy to see what’s been happening.
China is not interested in Russia losing, obviously. To lose obviously is not so much to lose what it has captured (including Crimea) as to cease to be a significant military force, or worse, to lose control and plunge into a whirlpool of turmoil. Therefore, the Communists will help Russia to hold on in one form or another.
But it will all be very cautious. As it has been throughout 2022. Because in the case of open financial or military assistance, the Chinese can remove a certain number of red lines that still exist on the part of the United States.
If China becomes a party to the conflict (indirectly, like Iran), part of the Biden administration, as well as Republicans and Democrats who see China as the main threat, will become more determined. To undermine the power and authority of not only Russia, but also China. The Chinese take this into account, as 2022 proved.
And the United States has something to respond with. By expanding the range and quantity of supplies to us, imposing sanctions on Chinese companies, expanding military cooperation with India (China’s main rival in the region), and creating obstacles to trade.
What factors fundamentally affect China?
- China is critically dependent on supplies by sea through narrow routes that are mostly controlled by the US Navy. Russian routes cannot compensate for the sea even by 30%.
- China’s economy has lost its previous growth momentum, has accumulated a huge number of problems, and is suffering from a permanent debt crisis (most Chinese companies are overdrawn by 300+% of their own capitalization).
- The Chinese Armed Forces are still in the process of rearmament, with an emphasis on the navy and aviation. Because the potential front is actually about the navy, aviation, and missiles. And the upgrade program is due to be completed no earlier than 2025.
In such circumstances, the Chinese will be cautious about escalation. This was proven by the tension around Taiwan in the fall. But communists are communists because they are insidious by nature. Therefore, they will, once again, help Russia.
What can Russia get in reality? (Maybe, but not for sure). At the first stage: drones (including kamikaze drones) and anti-drone weapons. Because these are the weapons that are easiest to make conditionally “Russian” and China is doing fine with them. But here, too, the assistance will be cautious and limited, because sanctions are a big risk for Chinese tech companies. And we have already had such precedents. As for other weapons, we are as far away from this as we are from supplying us with the Death Star.
As for the fact that the Chinese may resort to irrational actions and be in a great hurry if Russia is obviously falling, this risk cannot be dismissed. But if (when) Russia begins to fall rapidly, its army irrevocably degrades, and its political and economic system is in crisis, then assistance with equipment will not save it.
But any assistance to China means additional losses for us and our allies, and therefore any steps that can stop or slow down their complicity are appropriate. Both our diplomacy and the diplomacy of our allies are working on this.
About the author. Yuriy Bohdanov, Ukrainian publicist, specialist in strategic communications in business, public administration and politics.
The editors do not always share the opinions expressed by the authors of the blogs.
