Fuel will rise to 60 UAH/l in August: expert forecast
The cost of fuel could rise significantly due to higher taxes and rising global prices.
As early as August, we should expect gasoline prices in Ukraine to rise to 60 UAH/l and diesel prices to 55 UAH/l. This opinion was expressed on his Facebook page by the director of the A-95 Consulting Group Sergiy Kuyun.
“The delayed integration of higher taxes and rising global prices create a very powerful impetus for the movement of prices at gas stations. Putting it all together, the prospect of reaching 60 UAH/l for gasoline and 55 UAH/l for diesel fuel is absolutely real. Yes, I think that up to UAH 3 per liter will be amortized at the expense of retail margins, but this is a kind of reassurance,” the expert writes.
He noted that since the return of the previous fuel taxes (July 1), gasoline has risen in price by slightly less than UAH 4/l, diesel fuel – by slightly more than UAH 4/l, while the forecast was UAH 7-10/l.
“The month was relatively calm thanks to the good stocks that players built up in May and June and even exceeded expectations. The key contribution to July’s stability was made by OKKO, WOG and Ukrnafta, who were well prepared and thanks to whom prices have not yet crossed the 50 UAH/l mark,” said the head of A-95.
“But stocks have a habit of running out,” the expert says, “so July fuel is increasingly replacing previous volumes at low cost. By mid-August, this process will be complete.”
In addition, he said, prices will be pressured by the global fuel market, which went up in July.
“Gasoline and diesel fuel increased by $130-140 per ton, which is an average of 5 UAH/l (of course, with the new 20% VAT). Gas went up by $70/t (UAH 1.7). We are entering the season of maximum consumption around the world, so in my opinion, we should not expect a significant price reduction,” says Sergiy Kuyun.
Among other problems in the market that will affect fuel pricing, the expert highlighted the difficult situation in the south.
“After the shelling of Ukrainian ports, tanker owners lost their desire to transport fuel to Romanian ports and Moldova’s Giurgiulesti. Those who agree have raised their freight rates by almost 50% (and some say even 100%) and are demanding life insurance for the entire crew, including their families. It is understandable that this missile would fly across the Danube… There have also been cases of direct threats to civilian vessels from Russian warships,” the expert writes.
Mr. Kuyun sees the way out of this situation in an increase in onshore contracting in the northern and western directions, as well as in the consolidation of traders.
