How much ATACMS is needed and why Abrams is for prudent use – the main points from Budanov’s interview
ATACMS and Abrams are sometimes considered almost the main types of weapons that Ukraine needs to quickly win the victory, but they should be viewed much more realistically
While the ATACMS ballistic missiles, according to quite reputable American media, are already in the final stages of approval for transfer, and the Abrams tanks are due to arrive in the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the coming weeks, one may get the false impression that almost everything depends on these weapons.
At the same time, Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, explained in a detailed interview with The Drive that in addition to the fact of the transfer of ATACMS, it is necessary to understand that their impact on the battlefield depends on their number, and Abrams should be used very carefully.
How much does ATACMS need
As for the ATACMS ballistic missiles, in an interview in the United States before the Ukrainian delegation met with U.S. officials, Kyrylo Budanov said that the issue of their transfer would be raised during the negotiations.
The rationale for the need for them is as simple as possible: the enemy has moved most command posts and warehouses to a distance of more than 85 kilometers. That is, beyond the range of GMLRS missiles for HIMARS. But this is not the only target for these missiles – as Defense Express has repeatedly noted, their priority is air bases, for which ATACMS in cassette form are ideal.
And in this situation, it is extremely important to understand that many such missiles are needed, both in terms of the number of targets for them and to ensure the systematic nature of such strikes. And, the head of the DIU explicitly stated that if the Armed Forces received a conditional 100 missiles, it would not change the situation. We should be talking about hundreds of ATACMS.
Defense Express notes that this may be a problem. Because the only public data from 2007 shows that the stockpile of ATACMS missiles in the M39A1 version with a range of 300 km is 488 units, and their production ceased in 2003. And since then, they have definitely disappeared.
How Abrams will be used
Another aspect is the transfer of Abrams tanks, 31 units of which were announced at the beginning of the year. First, as with ATACMS, the number of these machines will not allow them to become a game changer. Secondly, their use should be extremely balanced.
“They should be used very specifically for very specific, well-thought-out operations, because if they are used on the front line and just in general combat, they will not survive long on the battlefield. They need to be used in breakthrough operations, but very well prepared,” said Kyrylo Budanov.
He also explained that nowadays, fighting on the ground is almost entirely without armored vehicles, and all the advancement is the work of infantry, not “armored fists.” The reason for this is the dense mining, the huge saturation of anti-tank weapons on the front line, FPV drones, and artillery that begins to strike the armored group as it is moving forward. We should also add enemy attack helicopters. All this effectively eliminates the possibility of “tank breakthroughs.”
And the enemy was in a similar situation when it tried to capture Vuhledar last winter, where the Ukrainian Armed Forces burned Russian armored groups and inflicted huge losses on the enemy. At the same time, as Budanov noted, this operation was personally commanded by the head of the Russian General Staff Gerasimov, but after its failure he shifted responsibility to his subordinates.
And when infantry under the cover of artillery decides everything, according to the head of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, it is necessary to increase the number of artillery and use long-range weapons to destroy command posts, warehouses and other important rear facilities.
