New tactics of the Russian Federation: ballistic missiles prevailed in the shelling on January 8 – statistics of downed
During the attack on January 8, the enemy fired 24 cruise missiles and a total of 25 ballistic missiles, X-47 Kinzhal and X-22, which are not intercepted by conventional air defense systems.
During another massive missile strike on January 8, the enemy used more ballistic missiles, “hypersonic” X-47 Kinzhal and high-speed X-22 than cruise missiles such as X-101 and X-555. This is evidenced by a report from the Air Force Command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the repulsion of this attack.
In particular, only 24 cruise missiles were launched out of a total of 11 Tu-95MS strategic bombers launched from the Saratov area. But it also used 4 X-47 Kinzhal missiles, 8 X-22 missiles, 6 ballistic missiles from the Iskander-M air defense system, and 7 anti-aircraft missiles from the S-300/S-400. That is, there are 25 such types of missiles.
Since interception of X-47 “Kinzhal”, X-22 and all types of ballistic missiles is possible only with such systems as Patriot and SAMP/T, none of them have been intercepted.
In other words, the enemy chose targets that were not covered by these SAMs, and, according to the report, the targets were objects in Kharkiv, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia and Khmelnytskyi regions. In addition, the enemy used X-31P anti-radar missiles from Su-35 or Su-34 tactical aircraft, which attacked from the Belgorod region.
However, as the Air Force Command notes, “not all enemy missiles that failed to be shot down reached their targets.”
As for the downed missiles, 18-75% of the 24 cruise missiles were intercepted, as well as all 8 Shahed-136 missiles that were used in the first wave at night.
Thus, this attack may well mark the enemy’s transition from cruise missile strikes, which are intercepted with high efficiency by existing anti-aircraft missile systems, to the active use of ballistic and quasi-ballistic missiles, which cannot be intercepted without the use of scarce air defense systems with missile defense capabilities.
And protecting all Ukrainian cities from ballistic missiles means the need for dozens of Patriots, which is completely unrealistic when there are only 60 in the United States and about 30 in the European segment of NATO.
That is why the only effective way to counter this threat is to destroy the launchers and aircraft on the ground. To do this, the West should remove the inhumane condition of not using its weapons on the territory of the Russian Federation, and, moreover, provide much more long-range weapons. The only other alternative is to create and mass-produce its own long-range weapons, which is more than a challenge in the face of constant missile attacks, even without taking into account technological, production and scientific difficulties.
Later, the Air Force Command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces released a report on the repulsion of this attack, according to which Russia used more ballistic and quasi-ballistic missiles than cruise missiles during the attack on January 8.
