Russia provokes instability around the world
The situation in the Middle East remains the most tense
The world continues to see a wave of escalations and conflicts directly or indirectly related to Russia’s large-scale aggression against Ukraine and the resulting collapse of the international security system.
Moscow’s longstanding ties with a number of radical terrorist groups and authoritarian regimes and the Kremlin’s desire to divert the world’s attention from its illegal actions by stirring up old and initiating new contradictions and conflicts play an important role in this process. Moscow is interested in arms supplies from its current marginal partners, primarily Iran and North Korea, and is not above developing military-technical cooperation with these countries, which have been under severe international sanctions for many years, including the transfer of modern technologies that could significantly enhance their military potential and aggressive appetites.
The situation in the Middle East remains the most heated.
As you know, the conflict here was provoked by a large-scale terrorist attack on Israel by Hamas, a longtime partner of Moscow and Tehran. To prevent such actions from happening again in the future, Tel Aviv continues to conduct a military operation in the Gaza Strip to destroy this terrorist group.
Despite the partial withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, Tel Aviv has no intention of stopping the fighting in the area.
On January 21, the Israeli Defense Forces launched a new major offensive against the western district of Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip, where many civilians are hiding, with a series of air strikes on Hamas targets. The military is also operating in the refugee camp, as several Hamas facilities are located there.
Despite the efforts of the United States, Egypt, and Qatar, the process of returning the hostages has reached a dead end. Hamas demands that Israeli troops withdraw from Gaza, cease hostilities, and release a large number of Palestinian prisoners, which is unacceptable to Israel.
The leadership of Tel Aviv insists that the fighting against Hamas will continue until this terrorist organization is completely destroyed and the Gaza Strip is demilitarized, which may take many more months. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that even after the destruction of Hamas, the Gaza Strip should remain under Israeli control. Moreover, Tel Aviv’s desire for control extends to the West Bank. Despite calls from the United States and the EU, the Israeli leadership has not yet agreed to the formation of an independent Palestinian Authority in the foreseeable future, and the prospects for a long-term stable settlement in the region are unclear.
As for Russia, it has decided to unequivocally support Hamas in this conflict, even at the cost of its good relations with Israel in the past. Moreover, the events in Gaza also revealed some aspects of Moscow’s military support for the group that had not been widely covered before, such as the production of Kalashnikov rifles and ammunition in Gaza under Russian license. The sector also had entire enterprises producing rocket launchers with a range of up to 250 km, mortars, and other weapons. It is highly likely that Moscow was not only aware of such activities, but also facilitated them in every way possible.
Arab countries, including Iran, while providing active moral support to the Palestinians, do not take direct military action against Israel. However, this does not apply to their proxy armies – radical and terrorist groups located in different countries of the region, which persist thanks to the active financial and other support of some Arab capitals, especially Tehran.
Particular attention in this regard is focused on the Yemeni Houthis, who, in response to Israel’s actions in the Gaza Strip, resorted to piracy and shelling of ships in the Red Sea and actually blocked it for navigation. A series of targeted air strikes on Houthi military targets by the US and UK forces, supported by Australia, Bahrain, Canada and the Netherlands, to stop the shelling have not yet yielded the desired result. The Americans’ hopes for China’s influence, which is directly interested in restoring the sea trade route through the Red Sea, on Tehran to force it to stop the Houthis’ aggression in the Red Sea have not yet been realized.
The situation around Taiwan remains tense. This is due to the victory in the recent elections of the pro-government candidate, the head of the Democratic Progressive Party, Lai Jing-jeou, a supporter of the island’s independent development, which undermines Xi Jinping’s plans to move quickly on the issue of the island’s accession to China.
Today, the situation is at the stage of loud political statements. January 25 Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Colonel Wu Qian says Taiwan is part of China and will never be a sovereign state. According to him, “Taiwan’s independence” and attempts by foreign forces to split China will never succeed. At the same time, he emphasized that the Chinese army is ready to “become an iron wall in defense of national sovereignty and territorial integrity” of the country.
Given the vital importance for Beijing of maintaining and developing trade with the West, there is hope that a military conflict between China and Taiwan will be avoided. However, the parties are preparing for war. In addition to modernizing its military capabilities, Beijing is conducting massive purges of the party and military apparatus. Taiwan is also conducting a global modernization of its armed forces and increasing its missile capabilities to counter China.
In addition, Taipei hopes for continued strong support from the United States, as recently announced by President-elect Lai Jing-jeou. However, the US Congress’s blocking of the aid package that includes such support, as well as Donald Trump’s possible victory in the presidential election, may make certain adjustments to this issue. As for Trump, Beijing was enthusiastic about his ambiguous words during an interview with Fox News, where, in response to a journalist’s question about his support for Taipei, he limited himself to saying that Taiwan had, in fact, taken an entire industry from the United States – the production of microchips.
The leader of one of Russia’s key partners, North Korea, is becoming increasingly aggressive, backing up his statements with demonstrations of its military capabilities and military provocations.
In early January, during an inspection of the country’s military factories, Kim Jong-un called South Korea the most hostile state and threatened Seoul that in case of confrontation he would turn the neighboring country into ashes. According to him, he will not start a war unilaterally, but he does not intend to avoid it either. He also said that he sees no point in a policy of reconciliation and unification with South Korea. At the same time, Kim Jong-un expressed satisfaction with the fact that North Korean enterprises are “flawlessly fulfilling the plan to equip” military units and missile units with the latest weapons. At the same time, he emphasized the need to produce more weapons and military equipment.
Pyongyang is not limited to bellicose statements. He also resorts to dangerous military provocations. On January 5, the DPRK fired 200 shells in the direction of South Korea, which hit the maritime buffer zone north of the northern limit line, which is actually the maritime border with South Korea. And recently, North Korea launched several cruise missiles toward the high seas, which landed in the water between the Korean Peninsula and China.
Relations between Guyana and Venezuela remain tense due to the referendum held on December 3, 2023, on the annexation of the oil-rich Guyana province of Essequibo.
The referendum was organized by Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to broaden his support ahead of the elections to be held this year. The return of control over Essequibo is supported by the vast majority of the population, both pro-government and opposition forces. At the same time, observers note that Maduro is also using the tools tested by Russia in Ukraine, including the distribution of passports to residents of the province, in the annexation issue.
Venezuela remains a loyal ally of Russia, one of the few countries that consistently supports Moscow in voting on UN General Assembly resolutions condemning aggression against Ukraine and the annexation of Ukrainian territories. It is also worth noting Venezuela’s dependence on Russia in the military sphere. Its armed forces make extensive use of Russian weapons, from Kalashnikovs to SU aircraft and missile defense systems, and Russian instructors train its armed forces.
The Essequibo issue is currently being considered by the International Court of Justice. However, some observers do not rule out a conflict development in the future.
The events in the Middle East and Russia’s war against Ukraine have somewhat diverted the world’s attention from another troubled continent, Africa, where Russia is also playing a destructive role.
The results of Russian influence were military coups in some countries, with their reorientation from the West to Moscow, from democratic governance to autocracy, with Russia’s involvement in the plundering of Africa’s natural resources by corrupt regimes and the artificial maintenance of controlled instability.
In May 2021. A military coup took place in Mali in September 2022. – in Burkina Faso. The new juntas chose to focus on Moscow and became dependent on the presence of Wagner PMC fighters. In July 2023, this process continued in Niger. The reason for these coups was the intensification of jihadist groups, which since 2012 have turned West Africa into one of the most unstable regions of the planet.
And these are not all African countries where the military has allowed itself to be abused in recent years. This list includes Chad, Sudan, and Gabon, although the nature of the coups there was somewhat different. In several other countries, coup attempts (Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, São Tomé and Príncipe) and military conspiracies (Sierra Leone) failed.
Although direct Russian interference is not evident in all countries, Russia’s aggression against Ukraine remains a factor in increasing instability on the continent. At the very least, it contributes to rising prices, particularly for food, which leads to aggravation of social and political contradictions.
