The probability of an attack on Ukraine from Belarus is minimal, – British intelligence
British intelligence called it unlikely that the Russian Federation had transferred a significant number of troops to Belarus and that the Belarusians would attack Ukraine.
This is stated in the department’s Twitter account.
On October 14, the self-proclaimed president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, announced that 70,000 Belarusian and up to 15,000 Russian troops would be involved in the new grouping of troops. On October 15, the authorities of the Russian Federation released a video of the alleged arrival of the Russian military in Belarus.
“However, to date, it is unlikely that Russia has really deployed a significant number of additional troops in Belarus. The Russian Federation is unlikely to be able to form combat-ready formations of the declared number: its forces are concentrated in Ukraine. The Belarusian military, most likely, retains minimal capabilities for conducting complex operations.” – noted in British intelligence.
The Ministry of Defense of Great Britain noted that the arrival of Belarusians in Russia is probably an attempt to demonstrate Russian-Belarusian solidarity and to convince Ukraine to transfer troops to protect the northern border.
On October 20, the General Staff of the Armed Forces reported that the probability of an attempted offensive from the territory of Belarus is increasing due to aggressive statements and actions of the Belarusian and Russian leadership.
John Kirby, the strategic communications coordinator at the National Security Council of the White House, said that the Belarusian troops on the border with Ukraine may try to divert the attention of the Armed Forces to themselves.
On October 21, the Institute for the Study of War called the risk of an attack from Belarus low.
