In the event of war, Guyana has virtually no chance, and this situation is a direct consequence of the Kremlin’s impunity
South America is on the brink of its first war in a decade, following the 1989 US landing in Panama and the last internal conflict between El Salvador and Honduras in 1969.
On December 3, a referendum was held in Venezuela on the possibility of using any legal means to recapture the Essequibo region, which makes up 2/3 of the territory of neighboring Guyana. According to official figures, 95% of the country’s population voted in favor.
Without delving into the history, we note that Essequibo’s interest in Caracas has intensified due to the discovery of powerful oil reserves in the country’s territorial waters a few years ago, and the political and economic crisis in Venezuela is pushing the country’s pro-Russian leader, Nicolas Maduro, to a “small victorious war.”
But the fact is that Venezuela’s entire force structure against Guyana (detailed in a separate article) is six divisions against three battalions. In other words, Guyana’s own forces are unlikely to be able to realize any chance except for guerrilla warfare.
To some extent, Brazil could have prevented the war from starting, as it kept diplomatic relations with official Caracas severed from 2019 to 2022. However, since the beginning of 2023, Brazil has taken a course to normalize relations. And the latest statements from this country could well have lit the green light for Venezuela.
According to Brazilian TV Globo, Defense Minister Jose Mousio announced the strengthening of the border at the junction of the territories of Brazil, Venezuela and Guyana. The announced number of additional troops is 60 soldiers, who are to reinforce the existing force of 70 soldiers. That is, this entire section of the border will be guarded by a company whose task is to prevent the Venezuelan military from passing through the country. No other events are planned.
In general, the whole situation demonstrates that impunity for aggression only generates new aggression. And the fact that Russia has not received a proper response for the annexation of parts of Georgia and Ukraine, which has already led to the largest war in Europe since the Second World War, is only a green light for any dictator to act.
