Rasists blow up Kakhovka hydroelectric power station: computer dynamic modeling of flooding (video)
Back in the fall of last year, a Swedish engineering company modeled the consequences of the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam explosion.
Today, on June 6, at night, Russian occupation forces blew up the dam of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power plant. This is currently one of the largest war crimes of the Russian Federation, which will have catastrophic consequences in the near future and in the medium term.
The likelihood that the Rashists would take such a step was assessed as quite likely last fall, and therefore the Swedish engineering company Dämningsverket conducted a mathematical modeling of the dam’s explosion. For modeling, we used the HEC-RAS 6.3 software of the US Army Corps of Engineers.
At the same time, the company immediately noted that the model is a model, not reality. Moreover, it did not take into account the current water level, temperature, wind strength, and other parameters that would correspond to the day of the explosion (which is understandable for a simulation that was conducted in late October last year).
But in the worst-case scenario, the difference in water level of the Kakhovka reservoir that held the dam is 13 meters. In the modeling, the dam is 200 meters high.
The video includes a timeline to assess the consequences over time. According to it, the bulk of the water will reach Kherson only 20 hours after the dam is blown up. Prior to that, it will flood the islands on the Dnipro, and submerge villages on the left bank. In Kherson itself, the Korabel district, on the left bank of the largest settlements in the affected area, Oleshky and Hola Prystan, is flooded.
However, the dam’s blowing up affects only the Dnipro River, and the water level will rise on the Ingulets River and the Bug Estuary. Water will also turn the Kinburn Peninsula into separate islands.
The modeling was also performed depending on the width of the dam breach. The simulation above is for 200 meters, the other two scenarios are for 400 and 1200 meters of breakthrough. The rate of flooding depends on this, as the following modeling demonstrates.
Defense Express emphasizes that this is a mathematical modeling, not reality. We urge all persons in the flood threat zone to follow the instructions of the rescue services.
